The Predicament of Pakistan’s Political community

Pakistan, in the last few months has been a hub for activities and incidents that generated large scale international attention. There were stories from the length and breadth of the political systems in Pakistan. There was the Operation Lal Masjid that claimed many lives. Then there were stories about Gen. Musharraf’s re-election as the President (with or without uniform). There was a controversy about the ouster of Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary by President Musharraf and his subsequent reinstatement as a result of a Supreme Court ruling. The most recent story on which the clouds are yet to be cleared is about the speculation of a unilateral military intervention by the US in the border states of Pakistan which according to Intelligence reports has become a safe haven for the Al Qaeda activists on the run.

The Presidential Pandora’s Box

The troubles inherited by the Hon’ Military President of Pakistan and his position as result of the said developments and many others can in no way said to be insignificant. The fact that Gen. Musharraf even contemplated imposing an Emergency in the country, due to these issues, is in itself a vindication of the troubles that he is facing.

The truth of the matter is that Gen. Musharraf has lost his support in all fronts including from within the army, which was once his stronghold. If the facts stated in Amir Mir’s book The True face of Jehadis are to be believed, a major section of the armed forces has turned away from Gen. Musharraf, after he went all the way to support America’s war against terror. Amir Mir in his book goes into the specifics about the various assassination plots by factions in the Pakistani Army against the President. (The curious factor about these failed plots is that all of them very narrowly missed the target).

The story is the same with the various Jehadi groups operating from Pakistan who once enjoyed blatant support by the Musharraf regime. The same support is not seen now as the President has become a protagonist in the efforts to crush Islamic terrorism and America’s greatest self-proclaimed ally at that. This has not gone down very well with the Jehadis. The storming of Lal Masjid in Islamabad last month has added fuel to the hatred.

The incidents that followed the removal of Iftikar Chaudhary from the position of Chief Justice, by Gen. Musharraf served as a test of fire for the President’s acceptability in Pakistan, both among the general public as well as in the legal community. There was an anti-Musharraf wave that took over the country. This finally led to the Supreme Court, ruling the dismissal as illegal and reinstatement of Chaudhary as the Chief Justice.

The final episode, as of now, that speaks volumes about the distress that Gen. Musharraf finds himself in, was the withdrawal of his idea to impose Emergency in Pakistan. Although reasons stated for the need of an emergency was such as scaling violence by tribals supported by Taliban, in the country after the Operation Lal Masjid; and the American plan to directly attack Pakistan’s border territories to drive out the terror gangs hold up there; the real reason was the uncertainty that prevailed regarding re election of Gen. Musharraf as President in uniform. The main factor I would say that resulted in the backfire of the Emergency plan was the reaction of the people across the country as highlighted by the electronic media. The fact that Gen. Musharraf re considered his decision in itself exposes the weakness that has crept into his once powerful position.

Elections 2002 – A Controlled Democratic Stunt.

Amidst all this issues Gen. Musharraf’s re election in uniform story has gained much significance. I am sure that the election drama(s) enacted in 2002 which was a real mockery of the democratic process, is still fresh in the minds of the people of Pakistan. My references are to the April 2002 Presidential referendum and the October 2002 general elections.

In April 2002, Gen. Musharraf played his cards well in organizing a referendum for the people of Pakistan to choose their President. The plot was to extend his as the President term by another five years. The Election Commission version of the referendum results were that 44 million (70%) of the 63 million eligible population cast their votes and 97% okayed Gen. Musharraf. Now that’s too high a number for any referendum. I honestly believed then that they should have opted for more realistic figures, as in any case it was a hoax. In reality the referendum was largely boycotted and bogus voting was rampant. There were no electoral registers and identity verifications.

The story about the October 2002, General Elections were no different. Serious flaws were pointed out by all independent agencies who observed the elections. Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were blocked from contesting and the curb on political activities in the country was not lifted until three weeks from the election. Both Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML – NS) were allowed to contest only after they made superficial changes in their respective leadership positions. The rules laid down by the EC didn’t allow convicted persons to remain party office bearers. The State machinery was blatantly used in favour of Pakistan Muslim League (Quad e Azam). PML (Q), dubbed as the King’s party for its affinity to the military establishment, emerged as the single largest party with 76 seats in the 272 strong National Assembly.

Election 2007 – Politics of Confusion.

With all the issues discussed, in the background, the stage is now set for the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Pakistan. There is a total reign of confusion. Pakistan’s President is chosen by an electoral college, made up of the members of Federal and Provincial Legislatures. When Gen. Musharraf announced his intention to conduct the Presidential election in 2007, it was expected to be by the new legislature that will come into place by the fall of 2007 after the assembly elections. But Gen. Musharraf and his allies conveniently interpreted the constitution and he announced his plans to get elected by the outgoing legislature.

This drew flak from different interested groups across Pakistan as well as from the International Community, This was not unexpected by the President, because parallely efforts were being focused at striking a deal with Benazir Bhutto whose PPP is expected to win more number of seats in comparison to the other contesting parties. Pakistan’s court of justice is yet to take a decision on the appeal made by Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the other prominent political party - PML (NS) and Gen. Musharraf’s Principal adversary. The appeal is for re entering Pakistan and to contest the elections. The latest on the Musharraf – Benazir deal is that after the now famous “Secret Meeting” between the two in Abu Dhabi, Ms. Bhutto had agreed to support the President in his bid for re election. As the direct implication of the development Gen. Musharraf is said to have decided to wait till the new legislature is in place for conducting the Presidential election.

This being the ground situation, the Pakistan’s political community is in a totally confused state of mind with not even a vague understanding about the future. It gives a very grim picture of all parties directly interested in the elections to come.

Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the single largest party in the National Assembly now, is confused about what stand it should take if Gen. Musharraf is going to be supported by Ms. Bhutto’s PPP in his election fray. The PML (Q) has always been supportive to the Musharraf regime, but in the light of the new developments we may expect some changes.

Pakistan Muslim League (NS) is not clear about what court verdict can be expected for Nawaz Sharif’s plea to re enter Pakistan. As a result of the newly acquired activism if the judiciary decides to allow Mr. Sharif to come back to Pakistan much against the will of Gen. Musharraf, then the entire political scene will change. The agreement entered into between Musharraf and Benazir will lose grounds as the contest between PML (NS) and PPP will scale new heights and the outcome of the General Elections may not be as predicted.

Even though an agreement has been reached between Benazir and Gen. Musharraf, as confirmed by Benazir in her interview with BBC, there are still certain points on which an understanding is yet to be arrived upon, starting with the issue of Benazir’s return to Pakistan. According to Ms. Bhutto, the General has agreed to withdraw all cases against her, as a part of the deal. But here again when she wants to be back in Pakistan before the election, Gen. Musharraf does not seem to think that this is a great idea. He says the right time is after the elections. He may push this to even after the Presidential elections so that her come back issue may serve as a real pre condition for PPP’s support. Again Benazir is not sure whether the support to Gen. Musharraf should be for his re election with or without uniform. Also the President himself is worried having to give up his position as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), as he is worried of a repeat of his own actions on himself, i.e. another coup by the new occupant of the position in absence of his control. The General is very much aware of the growing dislike for him in various sections of the armed forces.

Why Support Musharraf??

Why would Benazir Bhutto and her party want to support Gen. Musharraf, even when his popularity is waning day by day? I was curious to find an answer. The answer was in the recent (non)developments in the country. A political reason to support the General could be that he will be a strong ally against Nawas Sharif, if at all the court approves the latter’s comeback. But this explanation is not strong enough, since there are no permanent friends and foes in politics. I would say that the reason for the support is again attributed the cloud of confusion that persists. The present situation in Pakistan is very fragile. The various Jehadi groups in the country have taken to violence in big way. The influence Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the border areas of NWFP and Baloochistan are on the rise. The American threat to directly attack the Al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan’s territory is also at large.

Pakistan’s relation with the US is both a boon and a bane. The main reason for the violent protest of the Jehadi groups is that Government’s support to the “war on terror” led by the US. But if Pakistan severs its relation with the US, and if the activities of the Jehadi forces, supported by Al Qaeda and the Taliban become uncheckable, the nation will come under direct firepower of the Western wrath.

This being the situation, the PPP leadership is not in a position to decide if they want to remove Gen. Musharraf from his position. This is another reason due to which the PPP may let Gen. Musharraf to continue in uniform, at least for the time being, if signals from the party are to be believed. A President in uniform controlling the reins of the military may be better placed to keep the threat from the radical forces at bay. Also the thinking of Ms Bhutto’s party may be that Gen. Musharraf as the President may be in a position to better manage the relation with the US ( both dangerous and inevitable), due to his terms with the US Presidency. This includes thwarting a direct military attack by the “War on terror” forces. If the reports are to be believed, the US has deferred its plans of attack, due to the request from Gen. Musharraf. This is clear from the statement by President Bush in which he says he is confident that the Musharraf Regime will be able to effectively rout Al Qaeda from Pakistan’s territories. Also, according to a PPP spokesman, the removal of a military leader from Presidency in such troubled times, is like paving the way for another Coup, which may or may not be bloodless. When conditions such as these prevail, the PPP and Benazir cannot be blamed for choosing to support Gen. Musharraf so that he can share the misfortunes the party is likely to inherit, if at all it comes to power. The passing of a new US legislation that attaches conditions (relating to Pakistan’s support to “war on terror”) to the financial aid from the US to Pakistan would have only strengthened PPP’s intentions.

Why This Plight for Pakistan.

At the time when both India and Pakistan are celebrating 60th year of Independence, it is surprising to observe that, while one is on the way to becoming a super power, the other is being tagged with a failed status. An interesting article in The Hindu, by William Dalrymple (author of the award winning The Last Mughal: The fall of a Dynasty, Delhi 1857), cites lack of Democratic values, Influence of radical Jehadi and Islamic forces and very low prominence for non-Madrassah education as major reasons for Pakistan’s plight. Endorsing these views completely, I would like to add that, I was surprised learn about level of Autonomy that the Pakistani army (fauj) enjoys, in the Book, Dateline Islamabad, by Amit Baruah. The author explains in discusses in detail about the Fauj Foundation being the largest employer in the country, running a large number of Industrial establishments, and how it is able to fund its overt and covert wars on its own. Amit Baruah quotes an article in Business week (12 Nov, 2001) which says that the annual Turn Over of the foundation was around $500 million and its profits, an astounding $ 41 million. In these conditions it is difficult for Pakistan to sever the governance from the armed forces and to pump in more democratic values into the system.

Problems have been a part of Pakistan for many decades now. Very little progress has been made and clearly there were never any focused efforts. However, some of the recent developments in the country such as the increased role played by the media, incidents of the judiciary stepping in to oppose the decisions of the military dictatorship (may be for the first time in Pakistan’s political history) and withdrawal of plans to impose Emergency by the President as a direct consequence of opposition from the people, are all signs of a new beginning. It is high time people of Pakistan open their minds to the real problems and elect a Government, which can systematically alleviate, if not eradicate these impediments. And, the elected Government and the ever powerful army should focus their energy towards finding solutions to such problems rather than wasting resources by meddling with surreal issues such as Kashmir, Nuclear arms race, etc. These issues, as far as Pakistan is concerned, deserve to be placed in the backburner if at all the country has to make some stride towards what is presently a distant phenomenon, that is Economic (& social) Development.

The US Invasion of Iraq – A Misjudgment of Fortunes.

Politics of energy prevails. There is an oft-repeated story of the perpetual race between the power hubs of the Planet to gain control over more International energy resource centers, to help strengthen their respective positions, in terms of power, finance & energy availability. Many wars have been fought, many lives have been claimed and many citizens were duped into believing false intelligence reports so that their respective Governments could carry out its hidden agenda towards this end without having to face internal conflicts. It is also no secret that certain developed countries have funds specifically allocated in their annual budgets towards such “indirect investments” aimed at procuring control of International Energy Resources. But the judgments made by these players, armed with all the information in the world, cannot claim to be error free, as can be seen in the case of The US Invasion of Iraq.

America & the Middle-East Tug of War(s).

For the United States of America, the only interest in the Affairs of the cluster of nations around the Arabian Gulf is due to their vast expanse of oil resources. The Invasion of Iraq and the political involvement of US in the “never ending” Palestine-Israel conflict are all a part of its Machiavellian plot to control the energy resources in the region. The fact that the Palestine affair is never ending gives a permanent foot-hold for the US in Middle-east. The latest episodes in this story, of the Palestine territory literally splitting into two with the Fatah group(backed by US & Israel) in control of the West Bank and the Hamas seizing power in Gaza Strip, further enhances the scope for the US presence. Also, Saddam Hussein, the late dictator of Iraq, will be remembered for presenting a fertile opportunity to the US to further its interests in the region, by invading Kuwait. The world played a silent spectator to the drama that unfolded after the Kuwait invasion. The passing of the Iran-Libya sanctions Act (ILSA) in 1996 by the US Congress also has a similar behind- the-curtain story to tell. [Details courtesy: Iran Oil, a book by Roger Howard]. The idea was to support the American companies, who were restricted from any Oil imports or deals with Iran by a blanket ban imposed by the Clinton Government. The Act threatened to sanction any foreign companies that crossed $40 million limit for hydrocarbon investments in Iran.

The US occupation of Iraq

Iraq was never a Hub for terrorist activities, prior to its occupation by US & its allies, as we all know now. Saddam Hussein, its Dictator, ruled the country with iron hands. He also did not open Iraq’s gates to the terror community to run their pet projects of disaster, like the Taliban did in the case of Afghanistan. Also, Iraq was not in possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), like the US and the others had wanted the World to believe. The US and its partner in crime, Britain, had misled the World Community and their respective citizens with false intelligence reports about WMD in Iraq’s possession, which could prove harmful to all in general and to the interests of America & Britain in particular.

Its ulterior motives, as discussed above, led the US to mastermind and execute the plan for invasion of Iraq with support from its allies. They were also successful in putting a dummy Government in Power. But the most visible (side) effect of these actions was the age old Shia-Sunni sectarian conflict in Iraq coming out in the open, with a very violent face. Violence has become the order of the day in Iraq and everyday many innocent Iraqis lose their lives in bomb blast & fire exchanges in various cities. The violence is very often let loose at the soldiers of the occupational forces in Iraq. Thousands of US Soldiers, among others have died till day. Even though the official death toll is available for all to see, nobody has a clear idea of the number of deaths in the US camp. This has become a major obstacle for the Bush Government in its homeland as well.

The US expected an Afghanistan like situation in Iraq. There the Taliban was ousted and the dummy Government by Hamid Karzai was installed, with wide support from the global community in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy. When even in Afghanistan, where things were almost in control, the current developments are pointing towards what may be termed, a volte face, the events in Iraq was a real setback for the US from the day one. The perpetual sectarian violence provided the perfect environment for terrorist machinery to take roots. Now, Al Qaeda and its sister concerns were finding it easier to establish their bases in Iraq.

With huge funds coming in from various terrorist outfits to Iraq, the violence there, especially against the occupied forces, knows no bounds. The situation has become uncontrollable for the US, for whom this is turning out to be a reminder of Vietnam. To add to its trouble, there has been a change in occupancy in ‘10 Downing Street’. With Tony Blair stepping down and Gordon Brown coming in as the British Prime Minister, George Bush is actually losing a personal ally(in an important position), who was a self – proclaimed supporter of his War policies. Now, all this leads to a typical catch-22 situation for the US. I strongly believe, that even if US desires to pull itself out of this mess, it is not possible.

What is holding US back……

Oil, of course is a major reason. Apart from this there are other factors which are forcing the US to continue its occupation of Iraq.

There is total anarchy prevailing in present day Iraq. Sectarian violence as well as attack against occupational forces is claiming many lives everyday. The propagators of violence in Iraq are getting ample cross border support from immediate neighbors such as Iran and Syria. Support also seems to be coming from various Islamic terror groups. If the US troops which has a major presence in the region, is withdrawn, the situation is bound to further deteriorate. This will be perfectly utilized by the ‘Friends of Osama’ community. Iraq will then become a platform for Islamist terror establishments to breed and flourish. The Government in Iraq will be in no position to control such a situation. Also Iran and Syria, unlike their public stand of offering to facilitate Iraq’s coming back to normalcy if the US occupation is ended, will have an enhanced role to play in maintaining the turmoil. The benefit is the possibility of fighting their overt or covert war with the US, from a soil which is not their own. All this means Jr. Bush will go down in history as the President who made available, a fertile land for terrorist groups to establish themselves and wage war against the United States of America.

There are other withdrawal issues haunting the US. The withdrawal process in itself may become a bloody affair. [Details Courtesy: The Hindu]. It may also turn out to be very time consuming and expensive. It took the US, four years to withdraw fully from Vietnam. It took the erstwhile USSR nine month to withdraw from Afghanistan, even as the countries shared a common border. Also its an old story that the Afghans made a fortune out of selling the weaponry left behind by the USSR troops, which were unable to carry them. The US has a considerably huge presence in Iraq. A rough estimate is that there are 200000 US troops, contractors & foreign workers who will need to be evacuated. This is not all. The US has around 1900 heavy Tanks, 43000 other military vehicles and around 700 aircrafts/helicopters. To add to this, there are supplies worth millions of Dollars spread across different locations in Iraq, where the troops have their presence. The withdrawal news will lead to an extremely hostile environment furthering mortar shelling on airfields, mine laden roads making it all the more difficult for the withdrawing troops. Even if the American troops make it out in good order, the local death toll is bound to be considerably high.

Again, a withdrawal decision will be a diplomatic disaster for America and Mr. Bush, and some may even read it as initial symptoms of an impending change in the World order – a tilt in the power balance, not at all favourable to the US. This may be particularly disastrous at a time when Russia is gaining importance in World Politics, in a post cold war era, and when the US and England are doing everything in their power to limit Russia’s influences within its territories. The reference is to instances such as the Litvinenko murder case leading to breakdown in diplomatic relationship between Britain & Moscow; and America strategically locating the planned missile defense system around Russia. The withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq will lead to Russia playing a more important role in the region.

What could be a way out………..for Iraq

While America is struggling to clear the bewilderment that is a result of its grave mistake, the situation in Iraq is on a continuous deterioration mode. Something has to be done and it has to be done fast. As the situation stands, I strongly believe that only non-radical Islamic establishments can make an impact on the warring factions. Regional Associations of Islamic nations such as Arab Gulf Countries council (AGCC) should come forward to play an important role in curbing violence in the state and cutting down support to terrorist groups from neighboring countries, by taking such countries into confidence and making them a part of the Iraq rebuilding processing. Strong signals from invaders of their intention of an early withdrawal, would also play a part in gaining support of neighbours such as Iran. It would be preferable to bring down the violent surges to some extend before the Occupational troops are with drawn. They should be replaced by Peace keeping Forces from countries whom the Iraqis consider as friends and based on their opinions.

All such options are easy to suggest, nice to hear, but difficult to implement. All said and done, Iraq and its people will always tell a story of a nation, which was pulled down from riches (in many ways) to rags, by a “energy hungry” super power, to give shape to its imperialist designs to control all oil resources in the Gulf.