India - Emerging Thoughts

The US Missile deployment in Poland & Reactions

2010-05-27T19:47:00.000-07:00

The US decision to deploy patriot missile manned by US troops in Poland, close to the Russian borders will definitely have an immediate reaction from Russia. What we can look for ward to is a renewed support to Iran’s nuclear agenda by Russia. As has been announced by the US, a consensus had reached between the US, Russia and China as to what sanctions should served to the Iranians as penalty for continuing with their Nuclear ideas. This was immediately after the agreement between Turkey, Brazil & Iran to swap a major chunk of Iran’s Uranium stock with Turkey in exchange for enriched Uranium for Iran’s Medical Isotopes production.

It is clear that US is not exactly happy with this deal. The reasons should be that – the entire Uranium stock is not up for exchange as per the deal, and Iran is still capable of enriching the remaining Uranium for an alleged nuclear weapons program. – The fact that developing countries took a stand against proposed sanctions and were able to convince Iran on the swap deal may not have gone down very well with the US think Tanks. – Also US not figuring anywhere in the whole exchange itenary may also be a reason for dissatisfaction @ the US side.

Reading together Iranian Presidents statement calling for Russia to take a firm stand in favour of its “friendly and peaceful neighbour”, on its non-military nuclear agenda; and the US deployment of Patriot Missile systems in Poland, very close to Russian military base in Kaliningrad, it is clear that a fitting reply from Russian against the US move, where it hurts the most, would be back tracking from the agreement reached with it on sanctions against Iran and taking a pro-Iranian stand in its nuclear program. Given the fact that Russia had earlier announced its plan to complete the work on Busheshr Nuclear by August , indicates a move in this direction.

Maoists Vs Terrorists: who is a bigger threat.

2010-05-18T08:28:00.000-07:00

The Maoists have clearly caught the entire Indian establishment on the wrong foot. We, the people, were under the impression that terrorism originating from Pakistan was a bigger threat to the nation, but naxalism was something which our leadership is capable of handling with deployment of the right resources. But the developments of the last few weeks have left the common man confused. 75 CRPF men were massacred in cold blood. This was followed by the civilian bus blow up yesterday, in which the number of deaths could be anywhere between 65 to 75. The front page article covering this incident in ‘The Hindu’ quotes a police official as saying, ”IEDs ( Improvised Explosive Devices) are like Maosts’ fast food.A mine can be planted(by them) in as little as 15 minutes”. This is a very scary statement. Leaves us to imagine as to what more are these guys capable of.

In a latest opinion poll by NDTV, 69% of the respondents felt the Government should use the Armed Forces to fight the naxalites. But in a recent discussion on Governments’ naxalite strategy, Mahendra Kumawat, former Special Secretary( internal security) in home ministry endorsed the government stand of not deploying the Army against the Maoists. The reason being the military not trained for the terrain and the kind of guerilla warfare the naxals engage in. Another interesting statement by D N mithra, a serving IPS officer in the same forum was - “ Army is too big a hammer to hit the Maoists”. These experts must definitely be right in their opinions. It is not be misunderstood as advocating use of military, but question that arises in one’s mind is – do we then have right machinery to hit back at the Maoists?. If the recent media reports coming out of Chhattisgarh are to be believed we only have ‘non-motivated’ CRPF battalions deployed in the affected areas, which did not follow the right protocols thus leading to the unfortunate mass execution. If that is the case, we are much better off in dealing with cross border terrorism, where we have resources such as the armed forces, RAW, NIA, ATS, STF and what not. What they have achieved is of course a moot point.

Union HRD Minister Kapil Sibal is said to have hailed the Home Minister and commented that the people felt the country’s security is in safe hands. This is definitely not agreeable. The criticism is not directed at the present Home Ministry alone, but at all those gate keepers we have had in the last decade and a half. If the Naxals have become experts in deploying IEDs, if they have planted landmines in large areas of forest lands, if they can successfully strategize to mass annihilate our security forces; then what was our Home Ministry & the Governments of the affected states doing when the naxals were accumulating these capabilities. Clearly they could not have acquired these competences overnight. Understandably we have let these anti-national elements gain strength, right under our nose as opposed to Islamic terrorism, which grew roots on the other side of the border. All we can hope now is to find the right “Hammer” before we end up in Srilanka-like situation where a rebel minority group grew in strength to wage a full fledged war against the Government for years and to hold the entire country’s development to ransom

July 15th

2010-05-11T13:41:00.000-07:00

The stage is set for another round of dramatics. India and Pakistan will play protagonists once again. As you may have guessed already, the US will wield the megaphone as usual for this top rated franchise – ‘India-Pak Talks’, which has many more episodes in the offing. The location/venue, this time around is Islamabad.

After the 26/11 Mumbai massacre by Pakistan based terrorists, India had closed its doors to the ‘talks’ diplomacy. India had demanded strong action from Pakistan against elements responsible for the cruel act. Pakistan relented to the tremendous pressure from India and the US and arrested seven LET leaders .They were put to trial, the authenticity of which again seems to be questionable. But it has to be noted that Pakistan did not move against the LET founder & chief of JUD, Hafeez Saeed, who masterminded 26/11.

Even as the Pakistani side was constantly emphasizing on the need to get back to the discussion tables Indians seemed to be in no mood for it. But in February 2010, the Indian side surprised all by deciding to restart the talks process. Words were chosen carefully. It was decided that talks will not be composite, which meant that it will not be a full-fledged dialogue but one which will address only certain issues at the Foreign Secretary levels. It was stated that the ‘time was not ripe’ for resuming composite dialogue. The results of this non-composite dialogue on Feb 25th 2010, was there for all to see, when a sarcastic Salman Bashir, Pak For. Secretary discounted all those dossiers of evidence submitted by India as mere ‘literature’.

From 26/11/08 to 02/02/10 or from 02/02/10 to present day , what has Pakistan done for us to first agree to non-composite and then a composite dialogue. After 26/11, India demanded action against its perpetrators based in Pakistan, and the response was dismal. In Feb, 2010 we said the ‘time was not ripe’. From Feb 25th to May 12,2010 when the Foreign Ministers of both sides fixed a date for the meeting, have we seen any positive response from Pak, which ripened the conditions for a composite dialogue? Or are we just acting under external pressure? Are we not in a position to take a stand of our own?. It is time the Govt of India provides answers to some of these questions that crop up in the minds of any average educated Indian .

The guards are up !

2008-12-22T05:18:00.000-08:00

Union Defense Minister A K Antony announces decision to install radar cover for the entire coastline. What next?? Now, we wait for the terrorists, sitting in their safe havens, to devise a new methodology to gain entry and unleash terror on our country. Please……….its time, our so-called think tanks start thinking ahead of these terrorists. We should stop assuming that once they implement a successful strategy; they will repeat it over and over again. Even the common man of the country do realize that these terror merchants come up with novel ideas every time they have decided to select India as a target.

The whole of India is on High alert. The security has been beefed up in places of significance across the country, especially Hotels and Railway Stations. That was very predictable since we have witnessed such activities immediately after every terror strike, whenever it has happened. I personally don’t think the terrorists will plan another assault in such close immediacy to an earlier one, especially after one as big as Mumbai, and that too using the same modus operandi and selecting similar targets. Not to say that these defensive actions are not necessary, but we should realize that being defensive is not a very successful strategy against terrorism. India should look at options for maintaining this alertness throughout, because these perpetrators of violence will plan their acts only when they feel that our guards are down, just as it happened in Mumbai this time.

There were reports in the media, in relation to 26/11 Mumbai terror attack, about Lashkar e Taiba targeting atleast 5000 deaths from this operation, as revealed by Amir Kasab, the Pakistani who was nabbed alive in Mumbai. The death toll in the 9/11 WTC attack was around 3000. So the scale of operation that these perpetrators of terror had in mind when they planned the Mumbai operation was at par with or even larger than that in the US. Imagine, a terrorist organization like LeT, whose presence in the global terror map is most prominent and whose prime targets include the World’s most powerful economic powers, designs a violent outing in India as spectacular as one executed in the US. No, don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting that this is something to feel proud about. What I am trying to point out is that, when such deadly attacks, comparable to the one that struck the United States, are being planned and executed in our country, are we even remotely as prepared as that country is, in case of such eventualities.

Time and again we have proved that no such comparison is possible, as far as our readiness is concerned. The economic disparity between these two countries notwithstanding, we are left with no choice but to be as prepared as ever to face such threats. After the 9/11 tragedy the US has successfully kept such terror strikes at bay. Same is the case with UK after its 7/7. But it is not happening that way in our country. Every time India is targeted, our leaders talk tough, but nothing else happens after that. It’s a shame that, even after the terrorists had repeatedly made their intentions clear with a series of blasts in many important cities, we were not ready to tackle a situation when it happened, leave alone preventing it. It took almost 10 hours for NSG Commandoes, who led the counter operation in Mumbai, to arrive at the scene only because it had to be a political decision and our leaders who had to take this call were not clear as to what was happening. By the time such decisions were made, the terrorists were able to reach prime locations and consolidate their positions, which made the going tough for the NSG commandoes once they arrived at the scene. There were confirmed media reports about leaders of LeT making public declarations in Pakistan that India only understands the language of war, only a few days before the Mumbai incident occurred. Yet no precautions were taken. When the War on Mumbai was being reported, the media came up with stories of several instances of intelligence updates from different sources about possible terror strikes in India. If these are to be believed, all of it points to only one direction – shameful negligence or lack of political will to protect this country. From all these, are we to draw parallels between the present governing system prevalent in the democratic India and those rulers of the various nation-states that used to be India, who let the East India Company take over the reigns of this region.

Enforcing a strict vigil to prevent terrorist escalations in the future, as in the western countries, would require some levels of sacrifice from all of us. There may encroachment to certain extent on our personal space and time, for the purpose of enforcing security measures. This has been the case in all those countries who have successfully kept terrorism away from the common man. The people there have accepted this as a reality that they have to come to terms with. Let us take a cue from this and come together to tell our lawmakers that we are ready to sacrifice some of these privileges to ensure our own safety. Having said this, I would still reiterate the view that defensive actions such as setting up high security zones throughout the country cannot be treated as a strategy to “combat” terrorism. A political will that favors the nation and the security of its people and not one that indirectly facilitates disastrous plots of fanatic elements is the necessity of the times to prevent tragedies of mammoth proportion as in Mumbai.

Let Us Keep the Fire Burning

2008-12-06T04:13:00.000-08:00

Recently I got a forwarded mail from a senior colleague of mine. This was a petition to the Prime Minister of India on actions required in the light of the Bombay Siege, and the idea was to collect at least 1 million signatures, perhaps even more with the support of the media, and to submit the same to the Hon’ PM on 15th December. I promptly signed the petition and forwarded it to all the contacts that I had (which is normally very unlikely of me), since I found the idea very interesting. I am not sure if this activity will have any direct impact on our safety issues. But what made me become a part of this effort was the idea of sending a message to many and through them to many more, and hopefully to powers that be that our concerns have not died out; That the memories of those dreaded sixty hours which claimed lives of many fellowmen, still haunt us and that we do not intend to phase them out and go on with our lives.

Lets keep this fire burning. For a change let us not forget this incident and go ahead, as the case has been in many earlier occasions. We should clearly understand that we are all vulnerable targets for such terrorist outfits, but we realize this only after we take a hit. Lets do whatever it takes – meet leaders & officials, share information, write mails, talk to more people & create awareness, respond to articles in newspapers and sites, take out processions, attend talk shows – anything to make sure that our leaders don’t forget the massacre that they let happen. Through all this let us tell them that we are not looking at half-baked measures as answers to our concerns. This time at least we need full-fledged actions that are required to make our country a safe place to live in. Also we do not intend to become spectators to stale political dramas enacted with the sole intention of wooing vote banks.

Over the years, our Governments, irrespective of the party in power, have proved their ability in cleverly timed diversionary measures that help in focusing public attention elsewhere. Very recently we witnessed one in the form of the controversial 123 Agreement leading to Left parties withdrawing their support to the UPA. The issue re-emerged with many controversial statements from unexpected quarters and totally grabbed the media, opposition and public attention so much so that people forgot all about all about the serial blasts that took 63 lives in Jaipur and subsequently all the other such serial blasts that took place in important cities at the time when the 123 agreement was being discussed. Now, I am no authority to say for sure that these diversions were intentional. However the outcome in its totality was there for all of us to see. Let us not allow ourselves to fall prey anymore to such diversions, intentional or otherwise. We are definitely seeing many activities by people from different walks of life intended to maintain pressure on the Government to act. We have also seen a statement from our Hon’ Prime Minister that Indians are angry and hurt as never before. This may be a result of such activities we have undertaken. So lets all be a part of this campaign and contribute in whatever way we can, if not for anybody else, for our own safety and well-being.

P.S: Pass this message and more like this (preferably, your own thoughts) to more readers and lets hope that someday a window will open where people like us can ask questions and expect to get some get some answers

InD-elligence ?????????????

2008-11-27T12:32:00.000-08:00

Clearly, I have no idea how Intelligence Agencies work; How is it that they derive information from their sources, how they come to know in advance about terrorist outfits and their plans and how they are able to foil such efforts. What I do know is that powerful nations do have systems in place, which helps them learn and prevent threats in advance to a large extent. However by the looks of events unfolding, I have reasons to believe that there are a lot many individuals or groups in India who like me know very little about these matters. By groups I refer to our Government, the Police and our celebrated Intelligence Agencies.

Certainly this was not a belief I always had in me. This is a thought that has developed in the recent past, when I come to realize that there is very little means in place to prevent terrorist designs in India and let me assure you, this is not at all a political statement. One of the regional news channels reporting the latest terror attack on Mumbai stated that there has been 600 deaths from terrorist activities in the past 6 months in India. Is there a political bearing to this? I don’t think so because we have seen grim situations like Kargil Incursion, attack on Parliament, Akshardam and Kandahar earlier as well when an alternate Government was in place.

Rather than being political I am just trying voice common mans’ concern, about safety for himself and his family and friends from such acts of terror. Like any other common man in the country, who only has access to doctored information, I am also concerned about safety from terror strikes in our Metros and State capitals. There has been a series of terrorist attacks in our country in the last one year and none of our Security agencies had any indication about them before they could occur. That is a very scary situation, because we are under the impression that we have several well-resourced agencies like IB, RAW, ATS and God knows what else who constantly maintain vigil on various terror outfits and in turn stop them from implementing any of their grand plans.

Is there any truth in any such beliefs? The trail of events in the last few years forces us to think otherwise. What do these agencies actually do? Why are they not able to avert such disasters? Or is it that these incidents are only the few that escape the radar of the intelligence outfits and the real situation could have been much worse than this? If yes, then why do we not get reports of such thwarted efforts? Also, what could be worse than one hit or 100 deaths per month, going by the current rate at which terror strikes? After the first few strikes, was some homework undertaken to check further repetition especially for a city like Mumbai, which has always figured high as a preferred terror destination? Does our agencies have espionage abilities to find out if their counterparts in friendly neighborhood nations, with whom we are relentlessly strengthening our affiliation (pun intended), are involved in export of terror packages to our country?

What I do understand is that a considerable amount of tax payers’ money is being spent on maintaining such agencies. It is time the authorities should start to mull over giving some sort of assurance to the tax paying public that we have resources to watch our backs, even if it means considering a re-look at the way the so-called intelligence agencies conduct their business. Alongside all industrial and economic accomplishments of the powerful nations that we too are trying to achieve, it is of equal importance to understand and replicate systems that help them prevent more 9/11s in the offing.

The Predicament of Pakistan’s Political community

2007-08-17T09:28:00.000-07:00

Pakistan, in the last few months has been a hub for activities and incidents that generated large scale international attention. There were stories from the length and breadth of the political systems in Pakistan. There was the Operation Lal Masjid that claimed many lives. Then there were stories about Gen. Musharraf’s re-election as the President (with or without uniform). There was a controversy about the ouster of Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary by President Musharraf and his subsequent reinstatement as a result of a Supreme Court ruling. The most recent story on which the clouds are yet to be cleared is about the speculation of a unilateral military intervention by the US in the border states of Pakistan which according to Intelligence reports has become a safe haven for the Al Qaeda activists on the run.

The Presidential Pandora’s Box

The troubles inherited by the Hon’ Military President of Pakistan and his position as result of the said developments and many others can in no way said to be insignificant. The fact that Gen. Musharraf even contemplated imposing an Emergency in the country, due to these issues, is in itself a vindication of the troubles that he is facing.

The truth of the matter is that Gen. Musharraf has lost his support in all fronts including from within the army, which was once his stronghold. If the facts stated in Amir Mir’s book The True face of Jehadis are to be believed, a major section of the armed forces has turned away from Gen. Musharraf, after he went all the way to support America’s war against terror. Amir Mir in his book goes into the specifics about the various assassination plots by factions in the Pakistani Army against the President. (The curious factor about these failed plots is that all of them very narrowly missed the target).

The story is the same with the various Jehadi groups operating from Pakistan who once enjoyed blatant support by the Musharraf regime. The same support is not seen now as the President has become a protagonist in the efforts to crush Islamic terrorism and America’s greatest self-proclaimed ally at that. This has not gone down very well with the Jehadis. The storming of Lal Masjid in Islamabad last month has added fuel to the hatred.

The incidents that followed the removal of Iftikar Chaudhary from the position of Chief Justice, by Gen. Musharraf served as a test of fire for the President’s acceptability in Pakistan, both among the general public as well as in the legal community. There was an anti-Musharraf wave that took over the country. This finally led to the Supreme Court, ruling the dismissal as illegal and reinstatement of Chaudhary as the Chief Justice.

The final episode, as of now, that speaks volumes about the distress that Gen. Musharraf finds himself in, was the withdrawal of his idea to impose Emergency in Pakistan. Although reasons stated for the need of an emergency was such as scaling violence by tribals supported by Taliban, in the country after the Operation Lal Masjid; and the American plan to directly attack Pakistan’s border territories to drive out the terror gangs hold up there; the real reason was the uncertainty that prevailed regarding re election of Gen. Musharraf as President in uniform. The main factor I would say that resulted in the backfire of the Emergency plan was the reaction of the people across the country as highlighted by the electronic media. The fact that Gen. Musharraf re considered his decision in itself exposes the weakness that has crept into his once powerful position.

Elections 2002 – A Controlled Democratic Stunt.

Amidst all this issues Gen. Musharraf’s re election in uniform story has gained much significance. I am sure that the election drama(s) enacted in 2002 which was a real mockery of the democratic process, is still fresh in the minds of the people of Pakistan. My references are to the April 2002 Presidential referendum and the October 2002 general elections.

In April 2002, Gen. Musharraf played his cards well in organizing a referendum for the people of Pakistan to choose their President. The plot was to extend his as the President term by another five years. The Election Commission version of the referendum results were that 44 million (70%) of the 63 million eligible population cast their votes and 97% okayed Gen. Musharraf. Now that’s too high a number for any referendum. I honestly believed then that they should have opted for more realistic figures, as in any case it was a hoax. In reality the referendum was largely boycotted and bogus voting was rampant. There were no electoral registers and identity verifications.

The story about the October 2002, General Elections were no different. Serious flaws were pointed out by all independent agencies who observed the elections. Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were blocked from contesting and the curb on political activities in the country was not lifted until three weeks from the election. Both Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML – NS) were allowed to contest only after they made superficial changes in their respective leadership positions. The rules laid down by the EC didn’t allow convicted persons to remain party office bearers. The State machinery was blatantly used in favour of Pakistan Muslim League (Quad e Azam). PML (Q), dubbed as the King’s party for its affinity to the military establishment, emerged as the single largest party with 76 seats in the 272 strong National Assembly.

Election 2007 – Politics of Confusion.

With all the issues discussed, in the background, the stage is now set for the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Pakistan. There is a total reign of confusion. Pakistan’s President is chosen by an electoral college, made up of the members of Federal and Provincial Legislatures. When Gen. Musharraf announced his intention to conduct the Presidential election in 2007, it was expected to be by the new legislature that will come into place by the fall of 2007 after the assembly elections. But Gen. Musharraf and his allies conveniently interpreted the constitution and he announced his plans to get elected by the outgoing legislature.

This drew flak from different interested groups across Pakistan as well as from the International Community, This was not unexpected by the President, because parallely efforts were being focused at striking a deal with Benazir Bhutto whose PPP is expected to win more number of seats in comparison to the other contesting parties. Pakistan’s court of justice is yet to take a decision on the appeal made by Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the other prominent political party - PML (NS) and Gen. Musharraf’s Principal adversary. The appeal is for re entering Pakistan and to contest the elections. The latest on the Musharraf – Benazir deal is that after the now famous “Secret Meeting” between the two in Abu Dhabi, Ms. Bhutto had agreed to support the President in his bid for re election. As the direct implication of the development Gen. Musharraf is said to have decided to wait till the new legislature is in place for conducting the Presidential election.

This being the ground situation, the Pakistan’s political community is in a totally confused state of mind with not even a vague understanding about the future. It gives a very grim picture of all parties directly interested in the elections to come.

Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the single largest party in the National Assembly now, is confused about what stand it should take if Gen. Musharraf is going to be supported by Ms. Bhutto’s PPP in his election fray. The PML (Q) has always been supportive to the Musharraf regime, but in the light of the new developments we may expect some changes.

Pakistan Muslim League (NS) is not clear about what court verdict can be expected for Nawaz Sharif’s plea to re enter Pakistan. As a result of the newly acquired activism if the judiciary decides to allow Mr. Sharif to come back to Pakistan much against the will of Gen. Musharraf, then the entire political scene will change. The agreement entered into between Musharraf and Benazir will lose grounds as the contest between PML (NS) and PPP will scale new heights and the outcome of the General Elections may not be as predicted.

Even though an agreement has been reached between Benazir and Gen. Musharraf, as confirmed by Benazir in her interview with BBC, there are still certain points on which an understanding is yet to be arrived upon, starting with the issue of Benazir’s return to Pakistan. According to Ms. Bhutto, the General has agreed to withdraw all cases against her, as a part of the deal. But here again when she wants to be back in Pakistan before the election, Gen. Musharraf does not seem to think that this is a great idea. He says the right time is after the elections. He may push this to even after the Presidential elections so that her come back issue may serve as a real pre condition for PPP’s support. Again Benazir is not sure whether the support to Gen. Musharraf should be for his re election with or without uniform. Also the President himself is worried having to give up his position as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), as he is worried of a repeat of his own actions on himself, i.e. another coup by the new occupant of the position in absence of his control. The General is very much aware of the growing dislike for him in various sections of the armed forces.

Why Support Musharraf??

Why would Benazir Bhutto and her party want to support Gen. Musharraf, even when his popularity is waning day by day? I was curious to find an answer. The answer was in the recent (non)developments in the country. A political reason to support the General could be that he will be a strong ally against Nawas Sharif, if at all the court approves the latter’s comeback. But this explanation is not strong enough, since there are no permanent friends and foes in politics. I would say that the reason for the support is again attributed the cloud of confusion that persists. The present situation in Pakistan is very fragile. The various Jehadi groups in the country have taken to violence in big way. The influence Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the border areas of NWFP and Baloochistan are on the rise. The American threat to directly attack the Al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan’s territory is also at large.

Pakistan’s relation with the US is both a boon and a bane. The main reason for the violent protest of the Jehadi groups is that Government’s support to the “war on terror” led by the US. But if Pakistan severs its relation with the US, and if the activities of the Jehadi forces, supported by Al Qaeda and the Taliban become uncheckable, the nation will come under direct firepower of the Western wrath.

This being the situation, the PPP leadership is not in a position to decide if they want to remove Gen. Musharraf from his position. This is another reason due to which the PPP may let Gen. Musharraf to continue in uniform, at least for the time being, if signals from the party are to be believed. A President in uniform controlling the reins of the military may be better placed to keep the threat from the radical forces at bay. Also the thinking of Ms Bhutto’s party may be that Gen. Musharraf as the President may be in a position to better manage the relation with the US ( both dangerous and inevitable), due to his terms with the US Presidency. This includes thwarting a direct military attack by the “War on terror” forces. If the reports are to be believed, the US has deferred its plans of attack, due to the request from Gen. Musharraf. This is clear from the statement by President Bush in which he says he is confident that the Musharraf Regime will be able to effectively rout Al Qaeda from Pakistan’s territories. Also, according to a PPP spokesman, the removal of a military leader from Presidency in such troubled times, is like paving the way for another Coup, which may or may not be bloodless. When conditions such as these prevail, the PPP and Benazir cannot be blamed for choosing to support Gen. Musharraf so that he can share the misfortunes the party is likely to inherit, if at all it comes to power. The passing of a new US legislation that attaches conditions (relating to Pakistan’s support to “war on terror”) to the financial aid from the US to Pakistan would have only strengthened PPP’s intentions.

Why This Plight for Pakistan.

At the time when both India and Pakistan are celebrating 60th year of Independence, it is surprising to observe that, while one is on the way to becoming a super power, the other is being tagged with a failed status. An interesting article in The Hindu, by William Dalrymple (author of the award winning The Last Mughal: The fall of a Dynasty, Delhi 1857), cites lack of Democratic values, Influence of radical Jehadi and Islamic forces and very low prominence for non-Madrassah education as major reasons for Pakistan’s plight. Endorsing these views completely, I would like to add that, I was surprised learn about level of Autonomy that the Pakistani army (fauj) enjoys, in the Book, Dateline Islamabad, by Amit Baruah. The author explains in discusses in detail about the Fauj Foundation being the largest employer in the country, running a large number of Industrial establishments, and how it is able to fund its overt and covert wars on its own. Amit Baruah quotes an article in Business week (12 Nov, 2001) which says that the annual Turn Over of the foundation was around $500 million and its profits, an astounding $ 41 million. In these conditions it is difficult for Pakistan to sever the governance from the armed forces and to pump in more democratic values into the system.

Problems have been a part of Pakistan for many decades now. Very little progress has been made and clearly there were never any focused efforts. However, some of the recent developments in the country such as the increased role played by the media, incidents of the judiciary stepping in to oppose the decisions of the military dictatorship (may be for the first time in Pakistan’s political history) and withdrawal of plans to impose Emergency by the President as a direct consequence of opposition from the people, are all signs of a new beginning. It is high time people of Pakistan open their minds to the real problems and elect a Government, which can systematically alleviate, if not eradicate these impediments. And, the elected Government and the ever powerful army should focus their energy towards finding solutions to such problems rather than wasting resources by meddling with surreal issues such as Kashmir, Nuclear arms race, etc. These issues, as far as Pakistan is concerned, deserve to be placed in the backburner if at all the country has to make some stride towards what is presently a distant phenomenon, that is Economic (& social) Development.

The US Invasion of Iraq – A Misjudgment of Fortunes.

2007-08-05T03:45:00.000-07:00

Politics of energy prevails. There is an oft-repeated story of the perpetual race between the power hubs of the Planet to gain control over more International energy resource centers, to help strengthen their respective positions, in terms of power, finance & energy availability. Many wars have been fought, many lives have been claimed and many citizens were duped into believing false intelligence reports so that their respective Governments could carry out its hidden agenda towards this end without having to face internal conflicts. It is also no secret that certain developed countries have funds specifically allocated in their annual budgets towards such “indirect investments” aimed at procuring control of International Energy Resources. But the judgments made by these players, armed with all the information in the world, cannot claim to be error free, as can be seen in the case of The US Invasion of Iraq.

America & the Middle-East Tug of War(s).

For the United States of America, the only interest in the Affairs of the cluster of nations around the Arabian Gulf is due to their vast expanse of oil resources. The Invasion of Iraq and the political involvement of US in the “never ending” Palestine-Israel conflict are all a part of its Machiavellian plot to control the energy resources in the region. The fact that the Palestine affair is never ending gives a permanent foot-hold for the US in Middle-east. The latest episodes in this story, of the Palestine territory literally splitting into two with the Fatah group(backed by US & Israel) in control of the West Bank and the Hamas seizing power in Gaza Strip, further enhances the scope for the US presence. Also, Saddam Hussein, the late dictator of Iraq, will be remembered for presenting a fertile opportunity to the US to further its interests in the region, by invading Kuwait. The world played a silent spectator to the drama that unfolded after the Kuwait invasion. The passing of the Iran-Libya sanctions Act (ILSA) in 1996 by the US Congress also has a similar behind- the-curtain story to tell. [Details courtesy: Iran Oil, a book by Roger Howard]. The idea was to support the American companies, who were restricted from any Oil imports or deals with Iran by a blanket ban imposed by the Clinton Government. The Act threatened to sanction any foreign companies that crossed $40 million limit for hydrocarbon investments in Iran.

The US occupation of Iraq

Iraq was never a Hub for terrorist activities, prior to its occupation by US & its allies, as we all know now. Saddam Hussein, its Dictator, ruled the country with iron hands. He also did not open Iraq’s gates to the terror community to run their pet projects of disaster, like the Taliban did in the case of Afghanistan. Also, Iraq was not in possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), like the US and the others had wanted the World to believe. The US and its partner in crime, Britain, had misled the World Community and their respective citizens with false intelligence reports about WMD in Iraq’s possession, which could prove harmful to all in general and to the interests of America & Britain in particular.

Its ulterior motives, as discussed above, led the US to mastermind and execute the plan for invasion of Iraq with support from its allies. They were also successful in putting a dummy Government in Power. But the most visible (side) effect of these actions was the age old Shia-Sunni sectarian conflict in Iraq coming out in the open, with a very violent face. Violence has become the order of the day in Iraq and everyday many innocent Iraqis lose their lives in bomb blast & fire exchanges in various cities. The violence is very often let loose at the soldiers of the occupational forces in Iraq. Thousands of US Soldiers, among others have died till day. Even though the official death toll is available for all to see, nobody has a clear idea of the number of deaths in the US camp. This has become a major obstacle for the Bush Government in its homeland as well.

The US expected an Afghanistan like situation in Iraq. There the Taliban was ousted and the dummy Government by Hamid Karzai was installed, with wide support from the global community in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy. When even in Afghanistan, where things were almost in control, the current developments are pointing towards what may be termed, a volte face, the events in Iraq was a real setback for the US from the day one. The perpetual sectarian violence provided the perfect environment for terrorist machinery to take roots. Now, Al Qaeda and its sister concerns were finding it easier to establish their bases in Iraq.

With huge funds coming in from various terrorist outfits to Iraq, the violence there, especially against the occupied forces, knows no bounds. The situation has become uncontrollable for the US, for whom this is turning out to be a reminder of Vietnam. To add to its trouble, there has been a change in occupancy in ‘10 Downing Street’. With Tony Blair stepping down and Gordon Brown coming in as the British Prime Minister, George Bush is actually losing a personal ally(in an important position), who was a self – proclaimed supporter of his War policies. Now, all this leads to a typical catch-22 situation for the US. I strongly believe, that even if US desires to pull itself out of this mess, it is not possible.

What is holding US back……

Oil, of course is a major reason. Apart from this there are other factors which are forcing the US to continue its occupation of Iraq.

There is total anarchy prevailing in present day Iraq. Sectarian violence as well as attack against occupational forces is claiming many lives everyday. The propagators of violence in Iraq are getting ample cross border support from immediate neighbors such as Iran and Syria. Support also seems to be coming from various Islamic terror groups. If the US troops which has a major presence in the region, is withdrawn, the situation is bound to further deteriorate. This will be perfectly utilized by the ‘Friends of Osama’ community. Iraq will then become a platform for Islamist terror establishments to breed and flourish. The Government in Iraq will be in no position to control such a situation. Also Iran and Syria, unlike their public stand of offering to facilitate Iraq’s coming back to normalcy if the US occupation is ended, will have an enhanced role to play in maintaining the turmoil. The benefit is the possibility of fighting their overt or covert war with the US, from a soil which is not their own. All this means Jr. Bush will go down in history as the President who made available, a fertile land for terrorist groups to establish themselves and wage war against the United States of America.

There are other withdrawal issues haunting the US. The withdrawal process in itself may become a bloody affair. [Details Courtesy: The Hindu]. It may also turn out to be very time consuming and expensive. It took the US, four years to withdraw fully from Vietnam. It took the erstwhile USSR nine month to withdraw from Afghanistan, even as the countries shared a common border. Also its an old story that the Afghans made a fortune out of selling the weaponry left behind by the USSR troops, which were unable to carry them. The US has a considerably huge presence in Iraq. A rough estimate is that there are 200000 US troops, contractors & foreign workers who will need to be evacuated. This is not all. The US has around 1900 heavy Tanks, 43000 other military vehicles and around 700 aircrafts/helicopters. To add to this, there are supplies worth millions of Dollars spread across different locations in Iraq, where the troops have their presence. The withdrawal news will lead to an extremely hostile environment furthering mortar shelling on airfields, mine laden roads making it all the more difficult for the withdrawing troops. Even if the American troops make it out in good order, the local death toll is bound to be considerably high.

Again, a withdrawal decision will be a diplomatic disaster for America and Mr. Bush, and some may even read it as initial symptoms of an impending change in the World order – a tilt in the power balance, not at all favourable to the US. This may be particularly disastrous at a time when Russia is gaining importance in World Politics, in a post cold war era, and when the US and England are doing everything in their power to limit Russia’s influences within its territories. The reference is to instances such as the Litvinenko murder case leading to breakdown in diplomatic relationship between Britain & Moscow; and America strategically locating the planned missile defense system around Russia. The withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq will lead to Russia playing a more important role in the region.

What could be a way out………..for Iraq

While America is struggling to clear the bewilderment that is a result of its grave mistake, the situation in Iraq is on a continuous deterioration mode. Something has to be done and it has to be done fast. As the situation stands, I strongly believe that only non-radical Islamic establishments can make an impact on the warring factions. Regional Associations of Islamic nations such as Arab Gulf Countries council (AGCC) should come forward to play an important role in curbing violence in the state and cutting down support to terrorist groups from neighboring countries, by taking such countries into confidence and making them a part of the Iraq rebuilding processing. Strong signals from invaders of their intention of an early withdrawal, would also play a part in gaining support of neighbours such as Iran. It would be preferable to bring down the violent surges to some extend before the Occupational troops are with drawn. They should be replaced by Peace keeping Forces from countries whom the Iraqis consider as friends and based on their opinions.

All such options are easy to suggest, nice to hear, but difficult to implement. All said and done, Iraq and its people will always tell a story of a nation, which was pulled down from riches (in many ways) to rags, by a “energy hungry” super power, to give shape to its imperialist designs to control all oil resources in the Gulf.

Radical Islamisation - Is a reverse Brainwash Possible.

2007-07-30T04:11:00.000-07:00

“Debate or denial : the Muslim Dilemma”, an article by Hassan Suroor, set me thinking about educated people who get drawn into the net of Islamic terrorism. Mr Suroor declares in the article that it is time for Muslims to accept that these individuals are not simply misguided youth acting on a whim, but they are people who know what they are doing and they are doing it deliberately in the name of Islam. He says that that they should stop the age old blame game – of finding reasons for such acts in external factors such as Western Foreign Policy as well as social & economic factors such as lack of education & unemployment. According to him, “the sense of fighting for an Islamic cause of creation of a Revolutionary state that will eventually bring in Islamic justice to the world” is the real driving force behind the terrorist plots. Quotes of reformed extremist are included to substantiate this point. The article states that the Holy Koran does promote Violence, even though the contexts are misinterpreted.

I do not agree with article in its entirety, especially where it refers to the Holy Koran and propagation of violence. I would say that the Holy Koran supports violence for the same reasons as it is done in the Bhagavad Gita or Ramayana – So that justice prevails. For that reason, I don’t believe any religious teachings would promote violence. Of course interpretation of these teachings is a different issue for which only individuals or groups to be blamed. The article was disturbing. Even if a part of what was said in it was true, then the entire exercise being carried out by various “players” to negate the effect of radical elements in Islam will be fruitless. Because I am sure, all the efforts, to counter terrorism, other than the armed strikes by the super powers, are all towards elimination of influences of external factors. Even the armed strike, as we have seen, are not at all a solution to counter Islamist terrorism. The escalating violence in Iraq, the re-Talibanisation of many areas of Afghanistan and the retaliatory terror strikes in Tribal areas of Waziristan/NWFP in Pakistan, as well as in Islamabad are all examples to prove this point. These are just revision of the lessons learnt by the US & Russia (erstwhile USSR) in Vietnam & Afghanistan.

What set me thinking, in this article, was that if the Islamist thoughts were the real/major cause for radical uprisings, what could be a possible solution to it. My thinking is centered around a point that if the Islamist Thoughts with the inherent force and the hatred towards the non-believing community and their establishments, can lead to such strong determination which made 9/11 & 7/7 , possible cant the same feeling be utilized towards self development . Here self development has to be projected as a “weapon” which can aid in the creation of a Revolutionary Islamic world.

The Process

Promoting ‘Self Development’ as radical machinery will definitely be a slow process which has to be attempted in the same Islamic background with adequate support of interpretation from the Holy Koran, which is otherwise misused by the radical elements to promote Violence in the minds of the believers, mainly the youth. The idea has to be fed into the minds of the young Islamists, through religious establishments such the Mosques & the Madrassahs and with the same religious fervor, coupled with Hi-adrenaline speeches by religious leaders.

This exercise if at all has to work, has to be taken up by the Moderate Muslims, including religious leaders with non-radical ideologies as well as sections of the community such as Politicians, Scholars & Academics who are true believers. I am sure that a very big group of such individuals who feels the community is under siege and find it irritating to stand up and apologise for the violent behavior of the extremists, would volunteer for such an action.

The communication that has to go, in promoting “Self Development” as a radical tool, is that it is the only means through which they can get back on their Western Tormentors. Attaining High levels of education should be means through which such an end can be attained. The idea behind is individual development leading to community development which will further the development of Islamic Countries. This will enable their voices to be heard by not only by the Westerners but also by all civilized communities of the World. It has to be injected into their minds that uni-polar world order will not facilitate their dream of an Islamist World. And this unipolar nature of the world cannot be dismantled by Armed Struggles, as can be seen from outcomes of such struggles in all these years in different parts of the globe. If high levels of self development can be attained by one and all in the community, the oppressed Islamic Nations can actually become powerful. That will tilt the world order in their favor. When such nations are run by individuals who can work as a group (as they are bound by Islam) and think and decide for themselves, then the policies will not reflect a western influence. And when such Islamic Countries stand together and raise their voice, the western oppressors cannot help but take notice. The Westerners will not dare to bring down such an Islamic Might, as they will not be in a position to hide their actions under the blanket of ‘fighting against terror”, which is their usual excuse. Even those Muslim Nations, who had been subservient to the Western countries because they had no option owing to the economic or military power of the Westerners, will now fall in line with this Self Developed economically powerful group. As the group gets bigger, the World’s second biggest community will slowly but steadily start moving towards the Individual dream that started it all – A revolutionary world with Islamic Justice.

The assumption

The assumption that I have made in thought process on this issue is in a way linked to Hasan Suroor’s article. I feel that the indoctrination of violent theology into the minds of the young people, is consistently possible for the radical Islamists, due to certain elements in the story they have to say. In the story, there is a very strong oppressor, who is a non-believer and who is always on the wrong side of the humanity. Also there is a constant struggle against the oppressor by the believing community – Islam, of which they are all proud Members. Another effective attribute is that they are chosen by God himself for which they should consider themselves “blessed”. They only way ahead is to stand together and fight.

Such elements can send strong signals into the young minds of the believers and make it very appealing to them, when served with all right ingredients such as religious fervor and war cries. This becomes a major source of determination with they blow themselves up, with pleasure, if they can take a couple of westerners or Non-believers with them.

The “Islamic Actualisation through self development” theory also should be packaged in the same way. It will have the common enemy – The West. There is also the need for the struggle for attaining high education levels which will lead to a very strong position for the community. Again you are chosen by the God himself and also you will have to stand together and fight to make your voice heard.

Examples can be drawn from similar stories about countries like India (which has a sizeable Muslim population) and Venezuela. India’s opinion, until a few years back was not given any consideration by the Westerners. But now she is able to stand up against the very same US and EU in issues such as WTO because of the economic power attained; which to a great extend is due to the self development of the people. Venezuela is a country which has constantly raised its voice against the US because of its economic power attained by logical utilization of its available resources.

The Viability

I clearly understand that this whole exercise is not going to be easy. But as long as we do not have many options infront of us which may bring an end to the problem of terrorism, which has become an everyday issue affecting the life of common man, I strongly suggest that any non violent measure should be given a fair chance. Another accusation would be that of selling a very far off dream. But what we have to realize is that when the young minds are doctored with radical ideas around the globe they are again being given an unaccomplishable dream of ending the western superiority through various violent means. But they fail to realize that and pursue it with unshakable determination. So why not we try and channel the same strength of determination through a constructive path by selling a dream of a same end which may or may not be attainable.

The Indian President - Need for Enhanced Activism

2007-07-21T07:58:00.000-07:00

Another presidential election went by .And once again battlelines were drawn. This was yet another platform where the political godfathers of our country could exercise a show of strength.Unlike yesteryear polls, this time the whole execise was marred by so many controversies.Till yesterday, the name Prathibha Patil did not mean anything to us. But tomorrow she is going to be our first citizen.No,this is not going to be another charecter assasination plot against the presidential candidate of the ruling combine.My worry/ thought process is on an entirely different track.I am trying to understand the essentiality of the whole drama, the political procedure and ofcourse,......the very ceremonial post.

I am not trying to challenge the eligibilty of the great people who have held this post till now and many more to come. They are all achievers with impeccable records and it goes without saying that I have tremendous respect for them. But I strongly believe that these achievements were all prior to them assuming the post of the President.From then on they have mostly done justice to the name , that has become almost a synonym - the rubberstamp.I know there has been exceptions. But were these exceptions of personalities or instances. I strongly believe it is the second.

Let me try and explain what was in my mind when I made the above statement. I was referring to instances when the decisions made by union cabinets were returned for reconsiderations by our presidents. Both the incumbent and his predecessor,as also a few others have exercised this presidential power. And these were in context of very relevant issues such as Gujarat riots and office of profit bill. This is to say that in the last Ten years, the two highly-educated, highly intelligent individuals with strong opinions, between whom this time zone is divided, had only three occasions (that too when taken together ) where they felt that the Union Cabinet's decission was not in the best interest of the nation and its people.Even if you go further back into the history of Indian Republic, you will find not more than two such Presidential Intervention, which was in times of Mr Zail Singh and Mr Venkataraman.I am sure there were more occasions in the last 10 years when Govts acted in partisan manner. The dissolution of Bihar Assembly, I would say was one such recent occasion, where the Presidential consent had to be imported from Russia, from our visiting President at midnight.

Also the last couple of such interventions did not make any real difference whatsoever to the actions it tried to object or to the future relevance of the Presidential post.In these occasions, the decisions were re-presented by the Cabinet without any changes, which then had to accepted by the Presidents, who are then bound by regulations. After the interventions, status quo Ante was maintained,as far as the scope of the presidential powers were concerned. The incidents were forgotten, only to be remebered when an outgoing president's achievements are enlisted by journalists as a farewell. I regret to say this,achievements they were without any real achievement.

A Need Analysis.
I dont mean to to be arrogant by thinking in these lines. It is only that I was always quite unsure about the necessity of the Presidential Position in a country like ours. Trying to understand the realneed for a President in a country like ours,some of the points that came to my mind are

-High calibre individuals like Dr APJ Abdul Kalam or Late Mr K R Narayanan definitely gave a whole new look & feel of the Changing India to the World.But the flipside is that, I am not sure whether the same thing can be said about Ms Prathibha Patel, atleast at the time when she is assuming office.

- This position is the only check, if it can be called so, we have on the Union Cabinet, whose decisions President can question.As we all know the mechanism has its shortcomings .

- The Position has derived some transparency to its functioning, thanks to Mr K R Narayanan, who introduced the Rashtrapati Bhavan Communique Method, for sharing his rationale behind exercise of various discretionary powers.

But There are many are reasons that actually question the need for such a Position in our country.

- The Presidential Poll has become a highly politicised activity. As we had seen in the just concluded execise.There was so much of mud slinging, in the form Press Conferences, Public Interest litigations and other high voltage political drama. Our leading Opposition Party,instead of pointing fingers at real problems , went to extend of digging out rumours about the UPA candidate and also alleged, in a high profile Press conference,that their Phone Lines are being Tapped in this regard.So much resources wasted on unwanted political drama. If actually their allegations on phone tapping was true, again another waste of time and resources by the Ruling Combine. We are used to various illegitimate collusions and Horse tradings for the Parliament and State Elections,which unfortunately we cannot help. I clearly dont understand if so much of political activity is worth it for a non-political position.UNPA, the self proclaimed Third Front, dragged Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, into controversies by quoting him unnecessarily. On his side, he should have known better than to fall prey to such political gimmicks. Finally we have all seen what has happened to the UNPA resolution of staying away from elections, when Jayalalitha's MPs turned up for the polls in the last minute.

- A complicated format ( at least that is what I feel) is adopted for the election proceedings.All MPs (LS & RS) and Legislators for State Assemblies are entitled to vote.A formula is given to arrive at value of Vote of each MLA or MP, so that there is uniformity in representation of the state.

Value of an MLA, Vote : State Popultion/1000 x No of State MLAs
Value of an MP's Vote :Total value of all MLAs/Total members of Parliament(RS + LS).

There are a few things i would like to clarify, when I go through this.
a. All this actions to have a proper representaion of nation's will. But finally is this really happening. Are the people getting represented . Is there any communication between them & their elected representatives, to understand what their choices are.I am sure there is not even an attempt.So it is mainly the will of the political parties, rather its leaders, that is at play here.I have a strong feeling, correct me if I am wrong, that a majority wanted Dr APJ to continue.

b. Now this is slightly mathemetical. Honestly i dont have a clear understanding of this , so i will be glad if some one can throw light on this querry I have, which is - It is the same people who elect the MPs & MLAs. So is there duplication of representation happening, when both MPs & MLA are entitled to vote.

Increasing The Scope
Can something be done to make a difference to the ceremonial attributes attached to the Presidential post in our country. If we can collectively device a method to incorporate the direct will of the people in the selection of a President, it may result in credibilty in the selection procedure. The "Rashtrapathi Bhavan Communique" method started by Late Mr K R narayanan, is indeed, a very innovative and transparent communication channel for the Presidential will. This method should be made use of, more often, not only to communicate rationale behind decisions, but also to highlight Presidential Opinions. This has to be coupled with more than one, well publicised channels through which individuals or groups can voice their concerns and opinions to the President.Such a system, to some extend, should act as a check to many a decision of the ruling combines which are not taken with a concern for the common man. Mr APJ Abdul Kalam,was successful in reaching out to various sections of the society, such as farmers, students,etc. His understanding of their psyche was indeed, commendable, as can be seen from his observations in book " Ignited Minds -Unleashing the power within India" . If more sections of the society can be reached out in a similar manner, and their concerns are passed on to the ruling community, it will definetely make some Real Difference.Probably then, the achievements may really become Real.
I understand that my suggestion on the National consensus for a Presidential Candidate, may be difficult to implement. But the rest of my opinions, along with many more to come from people who may respond to my writings, are/will be definitely actionable. It all depends on will of the individual who Occupies the Position. we can only hope that our political leaders consider "Independent Thinking" as one of quality criteria, while choosing a candidate for Presidential Post.